Tom Petty once sang
Waiting is the hardest part.
Nope. It’s the counting.
Post-Election: Where are we now?
With over 103 million votes cast before Election day — roughly 73 percent of the entire 2016 presidential election turnout — and varying state laws on how and when these early ballots can be counted, it should be no surprise that all of the results are not in by “press” time this morning.
Yet, given the challenges of this year and a long, tough election season, some impatience by the electorate can be expected, even understandable. Empathy is a good thing – and an even better one is that election officials are continuing to methodically count every eligible vote. They’ll get there, and the process is in place to make sure they get it right, no matter the outcome.
Right now, reported voting numbers indicate that Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden holds over a four million vote advantage in the popular vote and an advantage in the Electoral College. Final results from the “battleground” states of AZ, GA, NV, PA, and NC are still outstanding, but initial counts for every state except NC (more on that below) may be completed as soon as today.
As the 2020 federal election process moves toward its conclusion, Duke Health Government Relations will continue to work with the Administration and Congress on its priorities including COVID relief funding, robust funding for research, strengthening the healthcare workforce, protecting Medicare and Medicaid, and immigration and visas reforms, among many other issues important to the Duke Health mission. We will also foster relationships with newly elected officials and their staffs to identify opportunities for collaboration and engagement.
Congressional Elections
While the outcome of the presidential race is still too close to call, we are learning more about how the new Congress is taking shape for next year.
US Senate
Control of the Senate remains unclear and won’t be decided until early next year. However, for any substantial change to occur, Democrats would need to net four seats, or three combined if Biden is elected. So far, Democrats have netted one seat, defeating Republican incumbents in Arizona (Democratic candidate Mark Kelly over Senator Martha McSally (R-AZ)) and Colorado (Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper over Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)). Republicans picked up a Democratic held seat in Alabama defeating the incumbent (Republican Tommy Tuberville over Senator Doug Jones (D-AL)). It seems as if a number of other vulnerable incumbents will retain their seats for another term, including Senator Gary Peters (D-MI) and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME).
Closer to home, Senator Thom Tillis (R) is leading former NC State Senator and Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham (D), with some mail-in votes votes still to be counted. State election officials have said that final vote tallies for all statewide races will not be released until after the final November 12 deadline for mail-in ballots postmarked by November 3 to arrive at local election boards.
Which party will ultimately have the majority in the Senate, with significant influence over the policy agenda for next Congress, will come down to a pair of run-off elections in Georgia. On January 5th, Democrat Rev. Ralph Warnock will face incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler (R), and incumbent Senator David Perdue (R) will try to defeat Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff.
What does it all mean? Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) had hoped to flip the Senate and carve out a path to move through several Democratic priorities, many of which would be shared with a potential Biden presidency. However, it appears now that the only way that could happen for Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is with a Biden win and a 50-50 tie scenario. This would only happen if both Democrats win the runoffs in Georgia, a Democrat is appointed to fill the seat that would be vacated by Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA), and Vice President Harris then casting deciding tiebreaker votes in the Senate.
Republicans only need to split one of the races in Georgia to retain their Senate majority and avoid the need for an Executive tiebreaker.
No matter how the final balance of power in the Senate plays out, increased bipartisanship will almost certainly be necessary to move forward on any number of priorities.
Go ahead and circle January 5, 2021 on your calendars.
US House
The race for control of the House featured little drama mixed with some notable surprises. Democrats are projected to retain the majority in the House but may lose as many as eight seats as a result of strong showings by Republicans in competitive races nationwide.
Democrats picked up two open House seats in North Carolina’s congressional delegation – shifting the makeup for the next Congress from 10 Republicans and 3 Democrats to 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats. Democrat Deborah Ross, former member of the NC House, picked up the seat vacated by Rep. George Holding (R) in NC’s 2nd District that now includes most of Wake County.
Democrat Kathy Manning picked up the seat in the 6th District, which was previously represented by three-term Rep. Mark Walker (R). Manning lives in Greensboro and has worked as an attorney and small business owner.
Rep. David Price (D-NC) was re-elected in the 4th District to serve his 17th term in Congress. As a result of redistricting, Duke University and the city of Durham will be within the 4th District for the 117th Congress.
Republican Madison Cawthorn defeated Democrat Moe Davis in the NC 11th District race to become the youngest elected member of Congress at 25 years old. He will fill the seat left vacant by Mark Meadows, who resigned earlier this year to become President Trump’s Chief of Staff. The 11th District includes Duke Lifepoint affiliated hospitals.
What’s next?
A full docket awaits the current 116th Congress in the last few weeks of this year’s legislative calendar.
The Senate is expected to reconvene November 9. The House will return November 16. In preparation for the 117th Congress, the House will hold leadership elections and orientation for new members by the end of November. Congress is also expected to turn its attention to the next round of COVID-19 relief and stimulus and will need to address FY 2021 appropriations by approving spending bills or extending the current continuing resolution that expires on December 11. We may also see legislative efforts on surprise billing and perhaps some support for further extending federal telehealth waivers beyond the public health emergency.
Just how much is accomplished this year may depend on how much longer the final outcome of the presidential election is unclear.
What's happening statewide?
For an analysis of North Carolina statewide races, visit our colleagues at Duke State Relations.
https://staterelations.duke.edu/
Other News (with little counting necessary)
Public charge rule in limbo
On November 2, a federal district court in Illinois issued a nationwide ruling to block enforcement of the Trump Administration’s “public charge rule” modifications only to have the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals put a temporary hold on that order the next day, pending further review. The Administration’s public charge rule requirements would allow immigration officials to deny permanent residency to immigrants if they are found to have relied on government aid, such as nutrition assistance, Medicaid, and other public benefits, for certain periods of time. The United States Customs and Immigration Service (USCIS) said that it will continue to apply the rule to pending cases while it is at least temporarily reinstated.
HHS further delays ONC information blocking rules due to COVID-19
The US Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) Office of the National Coordinator for Health IT (ONC) announced it is extending compliance deadlines for the information blocking and health IT certification requirements in the 21st Century Cures Act. The requirements, officially released March 9, 2020, aim to drive patient access to and the sharing of their electronic health information, prohibit some information blocking practices, and hold health IT developers more accountable as a Condition of Certification. The deadline for the implementation of these requirements had previously been extended by three months in April. The new blocking provisions and requirements compliance date is now April 5, 2021, while the health IT certification criteria updates and the new standardized application programming interface (API) functionality compliance date is December 31, 2022.